Highly respected form annalyst Dominic Beirne believes the 2011 $2,5m Group 1 Caulfield Cup winner on weights will be Caulfield Cup favourite December Draw.
While bookmakers around Australia have December Draw drifting, it is a case where they probably had him too short in the first place due to ante post betting pressures.
Beirne, a former bookmaker, believes punters should get on 2011 Caulfield Cup favourite regardless.
“The handicaps for the Caulfield Cup were issued six weeks ago and RVL [Racing Victoria] handicapper Greg Carpenter has told me that if the weights were re-calibrated now, December Draw would be the topweight with 2.5kg more than he will carry tomorrow,” Beirne said on Friday.
“The rule of thumb states that a horse loses a length for every two pounds [0.907184 kg] added over a 2400 metre journey. Therefore on weights alone, December Draw should win by three-lengths.”
Paul Vincent from Luxbet is right behind the Beirne view.
“December Draw is the obvious one with great form, good barrier and the stable is flying,” Vincent said.
Vincent is declaring December Draw and siding with its trainer Mark Kavanagh on the distance debate.
“The distance is no concern for mine and he’ll win,” Vincent said.
“He’s very well weighted and his ability to race handy has him clear top pick.
The good barrier draw, light weight and good form of Southern Speed have made her a market mover’s darling for the 2011 Caulfield Cup.
Her co-trainer Leon Macdonald goes into the race confident and with the belief Southern Speed will run the 2400m of the 2011 Caulfield Cup right out.
“She should get a very good run from there (barrier 3), you have to say she is a genuine chance,” he said.
“I don’t think we have a problem with the 2400m, in fact I think she is well suited by the 2400m.
“Obviously December Draw is very hard to beat, the measuring stick – I don’t know if he will stay.
“He has the best form going into the race but he had to pull out all the stops to beat off Glass Harmonium the other day (in the Turnbull) and I think it was a gut buster for him.”
Southern Speed, $26 earlier in the week, is into $14 with Luxbet after touching $12.
Sportsbets Haydn Lane says beside that mare, money has come for Manighar.
“The big movers in the market are Southern Speed and Manighar who drew perfectly in gates four and five,” Lane said.
As well as Manighar, Luca Cumani’s other entrant Drunken Sailor has had backing at long odds.
Manighar from $31 to $18 and Drunken Sailor from $26 to $19 with Luxbet for the 2011 Caulfield Cup.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the two best backed runners had been
Mighty High and Southern Speed with his firm
All bookie report a lack of interest in Lucas Cranach since Wednesday after reports of a hoof problem surfaced.
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